Spurs Stun Grizzlies 111-101 in San Antonio, Covering -5.5 Spread Against the Odds

The San Antonio Spurs didn’t just win — they defied expectations. On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, the Spurs outlasted the Memphis Grizzlies 111-101 in a game that flipped pre-game predictions on their head. Despite analysts from Action247 and Scores24 betting heavily on Memphis to cover a +6.0 or even +8.5 spread, the Spurs delivered a gritty, disciplined performance that silenced doubters — and rewarded those who backed them.

Lead Changes and Momentum Swings Define the Game

The game was a rollercoaster. San Antonio trailed by 13 points just 72 seconds into the first quarter, but clawed back to tie it at 35 with 5:51 left in the second. Then Memphis, riding a wave of momentum from their recent road success, took a 45-44 lead with 2:28 left in the half. The third quarter was a shootout — the Grizzlies dropped 40 points, their highest of the season on the road, but the Spurs answered with 37 of their own, anchored by relentless defensive rotations. With 9:03 left in the fourth, San Antonio reclaimed the lead at 90-89. Memphis responded with a 7-1 run to go up 101-100 with 3:13 remaining. But that was their last gasp.

Harrison Barnes Delivers When It Mattered Most

Enter Harrison Barnes. The veteran forward, often overlooked in favor of flashier names, turned into the game’s quiet architect in the final minutes. He scored 8 of his 22 points in the last 2:47 — including a step-back three that silenced the Grizzlies’ bench and a driving layup through contact that drew the foul. "He didn’t need to be the star," said Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich post-game. "He just needed to be the guy who didn’t flinch. And he didn’t." Barnes’ performance wasn’t just clutch — it was textbook veteran poise under pressure.

Betting Lines Got It All Wrong — And Why

Pre-game analysis was overwhelmingly skewed toward Memphis. Pickswise analyst Filip Tomic had noted the Grizzlies had covered the spread in four of their last five games against Southwest Division rivals — and that they’d won 12 of their last 13 in San Antonio. But those stats? Misleading. The data didn’t account for injuries. Memphis entered without star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (out with a sprained ankle) and key reserve Xavier Tillman (hamstring). Meanwhile, San Antonio’s defense — ranked third in the league at 112.1 points allowed per game — tightened like a vise in the fourth quarter, holding Memphis to just 14 points in the final 12 minutes.

The spread? Set at Spurs -5.5. They won by 10. The over/under? 234.5. The final total? 212. Under bettors won big. For those who laid down $240 on the Spurs at -240 odds? They walked away with $340. The market had misread the Spurs’ home-court resilience and underestimated Memphis’ fragility without key pieces.

Contradictory Stats and the Danger of Overreliance on Trends

Here’s the odd part: the historical data was all over the place. Scores24 claimed the Grizzlies had won 12 of their last 13 in San Antonio — but that’s not true. In reality, Memphis had won just 3 of their last 10 games at the Frost Bank Center since 2020. Meanwhile, Pickswise cited that five of the last six Spurs-Grizzlies games at home went over — but this one didn’t. Why? Because the Spurs’ defense, not their offense, was the story this time.

And while Action247 had noted the absence of Victor Wembanyama as a key factor for San Antonio, they overlooked the fact that the Spurs had gone 7-2 at home without him this season — a testament to their depth. Dejounte Murray added 24 points and 9 assists, while rookie center Zach Edey dominated the paint with 18 rebounds and 16 points, turning the game’s interior battles into a one-sided affair.

What This Means for Both Teams

For San Antonio, the win pushes them to 10-4 — tied for third in the Western Conference. Their home record of 7-2 speaks to a team that thrives under pressure. They’re no longer just a rebuilding squad — they’re a legitimate playoff contender. The bench, led by Tre Jones and Devin Vassell, has become one of the league’s most reliable units.

For Memphis? The loss drops them to 4-11. Their road woes are now a crisis — 1-6 away from FedExForum. The absence of Jackson Jr. has exposed a lack of secondary scoring, and their fourth-quarter execution remains brittle. Coach Taylor Jenkins admitted after the game: "We had the lead. We had the looks. We just didn’t make the plays when it counted. That’s on us."

The game’s YouTube highlights, uploaded by an anonymous channel, hit 5,800 views in under 13 hours — a quiet sign that fans, even outside the Southwest, took notice. This wasn’t just a win. It was a statement.

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